Brace the high wind and (surpassingly) high prices
Price cannibalisation has been a main narrative in spot markets characterized by high penetration of intermittent renewable generation. The Danish bidding zones DK1 and DK2 are examples of such markets with their combined installed wind capacity upwards of 7 GW and renewable power generation often exceeding local demand.
Since the backend of 2025, this narrative requires some more nuances. Looking at DK1, monthly revenue for the period November 2025 to January 2026 has increased by 33% on a year-by-year basis. Deep diving on that increase points to a couple of interesting dynamics.
Monthly DAM revenue profile per MW offshore wind installed in DK1[1]
[1] Max power output from OFW used as proxy for installed capacity.
Capture rates on the rise
Throughout the latter part of 2025, the increase in revenue per MW is partially driven by higher baseload prices lifting the entire price-curve for offshore wind, but focusing on the recent November-January period baseload prices actually traded slightly below the comparable period the year prior[2]. Rather, the increase in offshore revenue is driven by a significant recovery of capture rates, and to some extent higher wind production.
Year-on-year change in offshore DAM revenue per MW capacity in DK1
from the period 2024M11-2025M1 to 2025M11-2026M1
[2] 95.3 EUR/MWh in 2024M11-2025M1 compared to 93.5 EUR/MWh the same months a year later.
This strong increase in capture rate has been visible throughout 2025 and reinforces the short-term recovery of merchant revenue for offshore wind generation with particularly January 2026 providing relief for asset owners (at least those who have maintained merchant positions).
Reduced price suppression in peak hours
Deep diving on production and price data also paints an interesting picture that the increase in capture rates happened in conjunction with higher wind production, and hence not as a result of lower wind production introducing less cannibalisation.
Across high wind production periods capture rates have trailed significantly above the period the year before, as exemplified below by production periods with output above 80% of peak-output. This is despite of a significant increase in the number of hours with peak or near-peak production.
Figure 2: Example of 12 months back-cast.
Outlook for offshore wind profitability
Another particularly interesting feature of the recovery of capture rates in DK1 during the winter is that capture rates have not increased due to the demise of another asset, i.e. increasing solar cannibalisation creating price pressure in non-wind generation hours.
The two-fold combination of higher wind production and higher capture rates as a combined driver of the revenue surge suggests that ongoing electrification and sector coupling have managed to create demand cushion underpinning the value of an offshore wind profile. At least in the short-term.
Jesper Asmussen
Partner & Senior Director – Commercial Advisory
T: +45 53 70 93 18
E: jas@bluepp.dk
Peter Moelgaard
Lead – Project & Energy Systems Optimization
T: +45 26 21 99 40
E: pom@bluepp.dk
Ioannis Kountouris
Lead – Project & Energy Systems Optimization
T: +45 52 72 64 39
E: iko@bluepp.dk
